Proofset AcademyModule 3 · Risky practices and preventionLesson 3.4Free · 25 min

Promises of winnings, tipsters and scams

On social media, accounts sell their predictions, show off winning streaks and promise “sure-thing matches”. Some are simply lucky, others misleading, others still illegal. This lesson teaches you to recognise the warning signs and shows why an impressive streak proves nothing.

Part 1

What is a tipster?

A tipster sells their predictions, usually by subscription, on social media or in private groups. They highlight their wins, sometimes a luxurious lifestyle, to give the impression that they have found a method.

What is prohibited

In many countries, consumer protection rules strictly regulate the commercial promotion of subscriptions to sports predictions. And suggesting that a service guarantees a favourable outcome can be a misleading commercial practice.

What you need to know

Module 2 showed it: beating the market is very difficult, and can only be proven over hundreds of bets, all published, won and lost alike. A screenshot proves nothing.

Part 2 · Simulation

How chance manufactures champions

Imagine 1 000 tipsters who choose their bets at random, each with a one-in-two chance of being right. After each day, those who were wrong are removed. Click “Next day”.

Day 01 000 tipsters with no mistakes

Simulation: each tipster has a 50 % chance of being right each day, independently of the others.

Part 3 · Your turn

Spotting the warning signs

Here is a fictitious sales message, written for the exercise. Click each underlined passage: find the warning signs.

Fictitious example
Predictions account
sponsored post
Click a passage.

Signs found: 0 / 6

Part 4

The most common scams

The “fixed match”

You are sold the result of a “rigged” match. At best, it is false and you pay for nothing. At worst, it is true, and betting on a fixed match is a serious offence.

The “insider information”

A hidden injury, a player who “is going to throw it”. Nobody sells genuine information of this kind to strangers. And using it to bet can also be illegal.

The unlicensed site

You are pushed towards a site “with no limits”, “with better odds”. It is not licensed by your country's regulator: no protection, no guarantee of being paid (lesson 2.1).

The fake account or the fake refund

An account that imitates an operator or an authority, and asks for your login details or a payment to “unlock” winnings. Never give out your codes.

In tennis, suspicions of fixed matches are followed up by the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA). A doubt about a site or a practice can be reported to your country's gambling regulator or consumer protection authority (lesson 3.5).

Part 5

What the authorities say

The lifestyle

Showcasing a luxurious lifestyle and easy winnings is misleading when it suggests that the advice increases the chances of winning.

Inspections

Consumer protection and gambling authorities regularly inspect content creators promoting paid tips or unlicensed sites, and issue penalties.

Influencers

Strict regulation of commercial gambling communications and prohibition of misleading claims or referrals to unlicensed sites.

Part 6

A measurement or a promise?

Whatever the source, Proofset included, here is what you should demand before believing a figure.

Question to askA promiseA measurement
How many bets?“A winning streak”The exact number, over a given period
Are the losses shown?Only the winning slipsAll results, won and lost
Before or after the fact?Successful predictions are highlighted after the matchThe call is locked in before the match (lesson 2.6)
What margin of error?“95 % success rate”, nothing moreA figure with its interval and its source
What is promised?To win, to “win it all back”Nothing: it states what was measured and what that does not prove

What Proofset does: it publishes its measurements with their period, their number of matches and their margins of error, including unfavourable results, and it promises no winnings (modules 0 and 6).

Key points

  • A winning streak proves nothing. Among thousands of accounts, chance alone always makes a few of them shine.
  • “Sure-thing match”, “insider info”, “win it all back” are warning signs, not arguments.
  • Only bet on a licensed site, and never give your login details to a third party.
Part 7

Test yourself

7 questions. You need 6 correct answers to pass the lesson.

0 / 7