Proofset AcademyModule 2 · Sports bettingLesson 2.6Free · 25 min

How odds move

Odds are not fixed. They are born several days before the match, then move until the first point, driven by news and bets. The last odds before the match, the closing odds, are the ones that contain the most information. Learning to read these movements means knowing what the market has learned in the meantime.

Part 1 · Your turn

The life of odds, from opening to the first point

Here are the fictional odds of player A, from three days before a match up to the first point. Drag the slider through time: the odds, the implied probability and the event of the moment are displayed.

Time
A’s odds
Implied probability

Fictional match, odds and events, for illustration.

Part 2

Why odds move

News comes in

An injury, a walkover, a player seen struggling in practice, a change of court or schedule. The market takes it into account quickly.

Bets pile up on one side

When a lot of bets come in on one player, the operator lowers his odds and raises those of the opponent to balance its risk.

A mistake is corrected

Opening odds are a first estimate. They get corrected as other operators publish theirs.

The margin changes

An operator may open with a higher margin, then reduce it as the match approaches, when activity increases.

Key point: odds that shorten mean the market believes more in this player (his implied probability rises). Odds that lengthen mean the opposite.

Part 3 · Your turn

Comparing your odds with the closing odds

The closing odds are the last odds before the start of the match. They bring together all the information available at that moment. A general rule, recognised by specialists but not a Proofset measurement, says this: having taken higher odds than the closing odds is generally a sign that you got a good price. Set both odds.

The odds you took1,90
The closing odds1,75

Careful: having beaten the closing odds does not tell you whether the bet will win. The result of a match remains uncertain. It is an indicator to be read over a large number of bets, like all measurements (lesson 2.5).

Part 4 · Animation

Why Proofset freezes its cards

Proofset recalculates its cards every 10 minutes. But between 60 and 30 minutes before the match, the card is frozen: the probability, the minimum odds and the tags no longer change. It is the frozen card that counts when later measuring whether the announcement was right.

A stable announcement

What is displayed before the match no longer changes at the last moment: you know exactly what was announced.

An honest measurement

A card cannot be corrected after the fact with information that arrived too late. The review is based on the frozen card.

The market, however, carries on

The market odds can still move after the freeze. A sharp last-minute drop is a piece of information worth looking at.

Part 5

Movements that should raise a flag

A sudden drop just before the match

The market often knows something you don’t: a player not at full strength, information from the warm-up. Be careful.

A match that disappears and then comes back

An operator may withdraw a match from its offer for a few minutes. This can be a sign that some news is breaking.

A favourite whose odds lengthen

The market believes less in him. If your analysis says the opposite, ask yourself what the market has seen.

Movements on small tournaments

On the least-followed tournaments, very strong and unexplained movements can have other causes. Integrity is monitored there (lesson 2.1).

Why it matters for a bet

  • Odds tell a story. Read their movement in terms of probability: who does the market believe in more and more?
  • The closing odds serve as the reference: they are the market’s best estimate, with all the information of the moment.
  • On Proofset, the frozen card is what counts. What was announced between 60 and 30 minutes before the match no longer changes.
Part 6

Test yourself

7 questions. You need 6 correct answers to pass the lesson. This is the last lesson of module 2.

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