A score tells you who won. The statistics tell you how. Aces, first serves, break points, return points won: every match leaves behind a sheet of figures. Proofset uses it to find out who really dominates, beyond the result.
Here is the sheet from a fictional match, won by player A 7-6 6-4. Click on a line to find out what it measures and how to read it.
| Statistic | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 4 |
| Double faults | 2 | 5 |
| First serves in | 61 % | 58 % |
| Points won on 1st serve | 76 % | 71 % |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 54 % | 45 % |
| Break points saved | 3 / 4 | 4 / 6 |
| Return points won | 35 % | 30 % |
| Total points won | 84 | 76 |
Start a simulated match. The bars count all the points won by each player, on serve and on return. At the end, compare the winner with the points total. Run it several times: every now and then, the winner has won fewer points than the loser.
Simulation: two players of the same level, 63 % of points won on serve, best of 3 sets. This is an order of magnitude, not a measurement. The real measurement is in the next part.
For every match in its database where both players' statistics sheets are known, Proofset counted who won the most points in total.
Proofset database, 53 933 matches from June 2022 to 13/10/2026, statistics sheets of both players. Matches ended by retirement have not been removed from this count.
How to read it: about 1 match in 20 is won by the player who won fewer points. Tennis rewards the big points: a break point, a point in a tie-break. But over a large number of matches, the player who wins the most points almost always wins. That is why points won are a good way to measure a player's real level.
A player who wins 60 % of points on serve does not win 60 % of service games, but far more. To win a game you need 4 points and a 2-point margin: the small edge repeats and grows. Move the slider.
The calculation against Proofset measurements. The calculation assumes that each point is independent. Yet it finds almost exactly what the Proofset database measures over 12 months (lesson 1.4):
| Surface | Points won on serve (measured) | Service games won (calculated) | Service games won (measured) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 58,6 % | 70,6 % | 69,6 % |
| Clay | 57,5 % | 68,1 % | 68,9 % |
| Grass | 62,2 % | 78,0 % | 77,8 % |
Key takeaway: a gap of a few percentage points on points becomes a much larger gap on games, then on sets, then on the match. A player who is slightly better point by point becomes a clear favourite over a whole match.
Point counts are the raw material of Domination, the indicator that Proofset displays on every match page. For each player, Proofset keeps their past matches with the counts from the statistics sheet:
Points played and points won on their serve, first and second serve, aces, double faults.
Points played and points won on the opponent's serve, break points earned and converted.
Over the year, and over the last 5 matches. This shows both the underlying level and current form.
Module 5 explains how Proofset combines these figures to say whether a favourite dominates their opponent. Here, you only need to remember the idea: Domination looks at points, not just wins. A player who wins matches narrowly, losing more points than they win, does not dominate.
A stats sheet tells the story of one match, with one opponent, one surface, one day. It takes many matches for a percentage to become reliable.
Lots of aces do not win a match on their own: you also have to win the rallies. On grass, everyone hits more aces (lesson 1.4).
Saving 8 break points out of 10 looks solid, but conceding 10 shows that the serve was under strain.
70 % of points won on serve against a player ranked 300th is not worth the same as 70 % against a top-10 player.
8 questions. You need 7 correct answers to pass the lesson. This is the last lesson of module 1.
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